Here is a list of the scientific studies I am aware of that support poker as a game of predominantly skill, along with a brief synopsis. Thanks go to Tony Cabot and his associates who prepared this list for the first PPA Brief in the Knetucky Domain name litigation.
Study 1: In Hannum and Cabot #1, 94 the authors conducted a computer simulation of one million hands under a variety of scenarios for two casino poker games, Texas Hold’em and Seven-card Stud. Because the simulations allow for different player profiles (as represented by toughness of play, knowledge of odds, ability to bluff, varying play according to position and other players' moves, etc.) to be loaded into the games, it was possible to see the effects in terms of money won or lost when an unskilled player was playing against skilled players. 95 The results, with regard to Texas Hold’em between nine skilled players and one unskilled player, showed the skilled players winning about ten times more than the unskilled player.
Study 2: Fishman and Pope 98 collected data from high-stakes poker tournaments and employed an identification strategy that allowed them to properly test whether skill differentials exist among top-place finishers of high stakes poker tournaments. The authors found substantial skill differences among these top players and concluded that certain players are able to consistently outperform their experienced counterparts.
Study 3: In Hannum and Cabot #2, 99 the authors analyzed a two-player limit game of Texas Hold ‘Em. They pitted an unskilled player, who makes wagering decisions randomly and thereby would rely more on luck to win, against a skilled player whose wagering strategy is to always raise when permitted to do so and to call otherwise. The results show the skilled player wins nearly 97% of the hands and an average of more than one-and-a-half big bets (i.e. in a $2/$4 limit game $4 is the big bet and the skilled player wins $6.50) per hand. The authors conclude that poker is a game of skill since the acts of a skilled player, expressed through the player’s wagering strategy (i.e., whether to check, bet, call, raise, or fold), win 97% of the time over an unskilled player’s random play.
Study 4: Dedonno and Deiterman 100 examined whether poker is a game of luck or skill by comparing players taught strategies based on expert opinion with other players not taught strategies. Specifically, 41 college students played eight games, totaling 200 hands, of Turbo Texas Hold’em poker, a computerized simulation of Hold’em poker. The students who were taught the strategies out-performed those who were not taught the strategies. The same group of students then played an additional 720 hands of Turbo Texas Hold’em. Once again, the students given strategies continued to do better than those not taught professional poker strategies. Dedonno and Deiterman concluded “the unequivocal finding is that poker is a game of skill.”
Study 5: Larkey et al, 101 operating on the premise that skill and skill differences among players are important features of real games, used a simplified version of Stud poker to better understand the results of different levels of player skill on the ability to win poker games. Using computer model analyses, the authors compared 12 different strategies ranging from a simple strategy that plays randomly (which the authors argue is a player with no skill) through more sophisticated strategies utilizing progressively higher degrees of skill. The results show a wide range of outcomes across the different strategies, with better outcomes generally associated with higher degrees of skill. The simple random strategy (zero skill) is the worst overall performer in terms of total or net winnings.
Study 6: Borm and van der Genugten 102 used a game-theoretic approach to study the relative roles of skill and chance in games. The authors conclude that the level of skill required to play the three popular variants of poker (Seven Card Stud, Texas Hold ‘Em, and Draw Poker) is greater than that in roulette, craps, and blackjack. Game theoretic mathematical modeling of poker analyzing the requirement for skill in poker play can also be found in the work by Ferguson and Ferguson 103 and in the references cited therein.
Study 7: Griffiths, Parke and Parke 104 assessed to what extent the skills involved with playing poker had any transferability to real-life situations. In his study, Griffiths found that identifying poker as a game of skill becomes apparent from understanding the skills and abilities required and developed by poker players, which are not needed or used in games of chance like lotteries. Poker requires the ability to appraise information and situations realistically in order to anticipate problems and difficulties, rapidly handle and interpret numerical and statistical information, adapt to constantly changing situations, effectively use interpersonal skills to extract information from other players, constantly and repeatedly develop different strategies and approaches to playing, set goals and formulate strategies to achieve those goals, continuously learn from prior experience, and play to strengths and weaknesses of all players. In conclusion, Griffiths et al. determined all of these skills associated with poker to be used in everyday life.
Study 8: Burns 106 analyzed the roles of skill and style in poker and how poker players use both to win. Burns found that poker players can use a mathematical analysis to make logical decisions for optimizing their chances of winning. Specifically, Burns found that the mathematics of poker 107 demonstrate that poker is a game of card probabilities and chip utilities, because it can be reduced to the player’s win:loss odds and cost:pot stakes. However, when players do not have a rational basis from which to make a decision (i.e. the mathematical odds of a player winning or losing a hand are equal) they can rely on another skill set that Burns calls “Style,” a “functional basis” for making decisions. Burns concluded that poker is based on rational decisions but when not all decisions can be reduced to a rational basis poker players can then choose to use different styles of poker play to optimize their win against opponents. “Thus, people will always play with style as well as skill, and research on mental limits is key to understanding why people adopt different styles and how these styles evolve into skills – a process that leads to new styles at higher levels of skill.
We hope there will be more!
If you need specific citations to these studies send me a PM.
Skallagrim